When to Book Holiday Flights in 2026: What Five Years of Google Flights Data Shows

7 min read

Every autumn the same question returns, usually at night and usually on a phone: is this fare as low as it is going to get, or should I wait? Knowing when to book holiday flights feels like a gamble. In 2026 there is better information than usual, because Google has published what five years of its own flight data show about the cheapest moments to book for Thanksgiving, Christmas and the rest of the year.

This guide turns that data into dates you can put in a calendar for the 2026 holidays, explains which old rules of thumb no longer hold, and suggests a calm way to book that does not depend on refreshing a search page every evening. If you only have a minute, the table directly below has the answer.

When to book holiday flights in 2026: the short answer

Trip	Cheapest point, on average	For 2026 that means
Thanksgiving (leaving Wed Nov 25)	34 days before departure	Around October 22; good prices roughly Sep 29 to Nov 4
Thanksgiving (leaving Mon Nov 23)	34 days before departure	Around October 20; good prices roughly Sep 27 to Nov 2
Christmas (leaving Sat Dec 19)	56 days before departure	Around October 24; good prices roughly Oct 13 to Nov 16
Christmas (leaving Wed Dec 23)	56 days before departure	Around October 28; good prices roughly Oct 17 to Nov 20

In plain terms: Thanksgiving fares tend to bottom out in October, and Christmas trips are best booked between late October and mid-November. These are averages, not promises, so treat them as the time to start watching closely and to book when a fare looks right, not as a single magic day.

1. When to book holiday flights: what the data says

On October 5, 2026, Google published an analysis of five years of aggregated Google Flights data. For each kind of trip it gives the number of days before departure when fares were lowest on average, and a wider range of days when prices were usually close to that low.

Kind of trip	Lowest on average	Usually low between
Domestic US flight	39 days before	57 and 22 days before
International flight	89 days before	133 and 50 days before (the drop inside this range is small)
Europe	90 days before	49 days or more before
Mexico or the Caribbean	43 days before	69 and 24 days before
Thanksgiving	34 days before	57 and 21 days before
Christmas	56 days before	67 and 33 days before
Spring break (March or April)	50 days before	64 and 29 days before
Summer (July or August)	21 days before	47 and 20 days before

Two details stand out. The Christmas low point arrives about five days earlier than it did last year, so waiting until after Thanksgiving to book December travel is riskier than it used to be. And for international trips the window is long and fairly flat, which means the exact day matters less than simply not leaving it late.

2. Booking Thanksgiving flights for 2026

Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26, 2026. Working back 34 days from the most common departure days gives these targets:

If you leave on	Aim to book around	Usual low-price window
Saturday, Nov 21	October 18	Sep 25 to Oct 31
Monday, Nov 23	October 20	Sep 27 to Nov 2
Tuesday, Nov 24	October 21	Sep 28 to Nov 3
Wednesday, Nov 25	October 22	Sep 29 to Nov 4

If you have not booked yet, you are inside the window now. The practical move is to settle your dates this week, start tracking the route, and book when the fare is at or below what you have been seeing, rather than holding out for a further drop that the averages suggest is unlikely after early November.

3. Booking Christmas and New Year flights for 2026

Christmas Day falls on a Friday in 2026, so the busiest departures are likely to cluster in the weekend and the days before it. Working back 56 days:

If you leave on	Aim to book around	Usual low-price window
Friday, Dec 18	October 23	Oct 12 to Nov 15
Saturday, Dec 19	October 24	Oct 13 to Nov 16
Sunday, Dec 20	October 25	Oct 14 to Nov 17
Monday, Dec 21	October 26	Oct 15 to Nov 18
Tuesday, Dec 22	October 27	Oct 16 to Nov 19
Wednesday, Dec 23	October 28	Oct 17 to Nov 20

One consequence is worth spelling out. Black Friday is November 27 this year, which is after the usual low-price window closes for most Christmas departures. Sales can still turn up, but the data does not support waiting for them.

For an international trip over the holidays, the 89-day guidance means the ideal time has already passed for most December departures. That is less alarming than it sounds: the international low range is wide and the drop within it is small, so a sensible fare booked now is unlikely to be a mistake.

4. The day you fly matters more than the day you book

The most persistent piece of travel folklore is that Tuesday is the cheapest day to buy a ticket. Google’s data finds that Wednesday was the cheapest day to book, narrowly ahead of Tuesday, and that it saved only about 1.4% compared with Sunday, the most expensive day. Google itself calls that difference negligible.

When you travel makes a much bigger difference:

• Leave on a Monday and return on a Tuesday or Wednesday, and you saved about 14% on average compared with weekend flights.
• On domestic routes, that pattern saved up to 20% compared with leaving and returning on a Sunday.
• Nonstop tickets cost about 20% more on average than itineraries with a connection.

Fare-tracking company Hopper, as reported by CBS News, points in the same direction for the holidays: flying on the Monday or Tuesday before Thanksgiving rather than the Wednesday can save money, and it suggests avoiding a return on Sunday, November 29, as well as flights on December 18, 19, 20 and on Sunday, December 27.

5. Why fares feel higher this year

If this year’s prices look steep, the averages agree. CBS News, citing Hopper, reported average domestic round-trip fares of about $402 for Thanksgiving, up 31% from last year, and about $452 for Christmas, up 23%. The same report cites International Air Transport Association figures showing jet fuel prices roughly doubling during 2026, from about $99 a barrel before late February to a peak of $209 in April, and still around $195 in mid-September.

Higher costs for airlines do not change the shape of the booking curve, but they do mean the low point is higher than you may remember. Compare fares with what you have seen on the same route this season, not with what you paid two years ago.

6. Where people are going

Google also ranked destinations by the biggest increase in Google Flights searches compared with 2025. These are rising stars, not the busiest routes; New York and Orlando still draw the largest crowds.

Thanksgiving, domestic	Christmas and New Year, international
1. Hilo, Hawaii	1. Athens, Greece
2. Buffalo, New York	2. Québec City, Canada
3. Columbus, Ohio	3. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4. Punta Gorda, Florida	4. Hanoi, Vietnam
5. Greenville, South Carolina	5. Guatemala City, Guatemala

If you are flexible about where to go, a rising destination is worth checking, but popularity can push prices up as quickly as it brings attention. Run the same timing rules on any route you are considering.

7. Let the tools do the watching

You do not need to check prices every evening. A few settings do the work:

• Cheapest time to book. Google Flights now shows, for many routes, whether current prices are higher or lower than in previous years and whether they are likely to rise or fall before departure. Google says this is also available in AI Mode in Search.
• Price tracking. Turn on tracking for your exact dates and, if you are flexible, for any dates. You will get an email when the price moves, which replaces the nightly check.
• Date grid and price graph. Shifting a departure by a day or two, especially to a Monday or Tuesday, is often the single biggest saving available.
• Compare the full price. A basic economy fare that charges for a carry-on bag or a seat may end up costing more than the next fare up. Check bag fees and change rules before comparing totals.

8. A calm way to book holiday flights

The anxiety around holiday fares comes mostly from trying to control something you cannot: the exact lowest price. What you can control is your dates, your timing window and your threshold. A simple plan:

• Decide your dates first, with a day of flexibility either side if you can.
• Start tracking the route today so you learn what a normal fare looks like.
• Set a price you would be happy with, based on what you have seen, not on last year.
• Book inside the window when a fare meets your threshold. Do not wait for the single cheapest day; the averages say it is usually only a little lower, and waiting past the window usually costs more.
• Read the fare rules on changes and refunds before you pay, especially for basic economy.

Holiday flight booking checklist

• My travel dates are set, and I have checked whether flying Monday to Tuesday or Wednesday is possible.
• Thanksgiving: I am booking between late September and early November, ideally around October 20 to 22.
• Christmas: I am booking between mid-October and mid-November, ideally around October 23 to 28.
• Price tracking is on for my route.
• I have compared total cost, including bags and seats, not just the headline fare.
• I know the change and refund rules for the fare I am buying.

Frequently asked questions

When should I book Thanksgiving flights in 2026?

On average, fares are lowest 34 days before departure. For a Wednesday, November 25 departure that is around October 22, with good prices usually from late September to early November.

When should I book Christmas flights in 2026?

On average, 56 days before departure, with a usual low range from 67 to 33 days out. For most departures between December 18 and 23, that means booking between mid-October and mid-November, ideally in the last week of October.

Is Tuesday still the cheapest day to buy plane tickets?

Not in a meaningful way. Google’s data found Wednesday slightly cheaper than Tuesday, and the gap between the cheapest and most expensive booking day was only about 1.4%. The day you fly matters far more.

Should I wait for Black Friday flight deals?

Not for Christmas travel. Black Friday, November 27, 2026, falls after the usual low-price window for most Christmas departures. If you see a fare you are happy with in late October or early November, book it.

Is it too late to book holiday flights?

For Thanksgiving and Christmas, no: as of early October you are inside or just before the usual low-price windows. For international holiday trips the ideal point has passed, but the low range is wide and the price difference within it is small.

Book the trip, then let it go

There is an old Stoic habit of separating what is up to us from what is not. Fares are not up to us. Our dates, our window and the price we decide is good enough are. Pick them, book inside the window, and then stop checking. The point of the trip is the people at the other end of it, not the forty dollars you might have saved by refreshing one more time. That is also, I think, part of the right to rest.

Sources: Google, “Wheels up: Trends and tips for 2026 holiday travel” (October 5, 2026), based on five years of Google Flights data; CBS News, citing Hopper and the International Air Transport Association. Dates in the tables are calculated from Google’s averages for the 2026 calendar. Averages describe past patterns and do not guarantee future prices. Photos: Eleni Afiontzi and Patrick Konior on Unsplash. This article contains no affiliate links.